Boxing Mosley-Vargas Bet 7/15

charleslanger · Jul 10, 2006

Right now, scalps can be had on this Saturday's Mosley-Vargas fight.

We will pass up on that because we feel Mosley will eventually knock out Vargas...probably middle to late rounds.

However, we want to bet in hedge mode: both in case of a fluke, and IFFFF our analysis is errrrrrrroneous...man that was hard to type.

Vargas was totally exposed by the smaller DeLaHoya long ago-- whatever little talent he had he wasted by instead emphasizing steroids & bullying tactics over boxing/hard work/endurance/fitness. His boxing skills & stamina are totally eroded, as far as the elite, top echelon levels are concerned.

If Mosley is in shape & has not eroded, he should take him to school boxing-wise, gradually wearing him down until rendering him completely out of gas.

SO, we're looking & HOPING to find a scalp in the following 2 bets:

Mosley Win...-170 best spotted so far...

UNDER(11½ & 12 being offered) + 165 highest seen.....

The under protects Mosley bet...should Vargas get lucky. But there is NO way on this earth he does ALL THREE of these: outbox Mosley, NOT knock him out, AND go the distance.

We should collect on both bets.

We are also concerned that we will NOT get the necessary odds movements in our favor...

We'll keep monitoring developments.........

boxlocks · Jul 11, 2006

Who's we?

:think2:

charleslanger · Jul 11, 2006

boxlocks said:
Who's we?

:think2:

CUT!!!! You left out the last word: suckah. Then 'OUR' answer'd be: Why, Smith, Wesson, and I!!!

OK! Let's try that back from the top-- with feeling! Places everyone! AND...........ACTION!!!!!!!!!!!

charleslanger · Jul 11, 2006

'WE' will be in public office one day-- as such we try to build consensus AND be all-inclusive. WE don't lecture down, but instead suggest thru leading by example(our bankroll)...WHILE being open to constructive criticism & suggestions: LEARNING FROM YOU-- which may lead to audibling / adopting one of YOUR suggestions instead-- if it sounds like a better choice / solution than ours.

VERY RARELY can yours truly see the whole picture re a particular event, so TOGETHER WE, YOU AND I, "WILL" GROW OUR COLLECTIVE BANKROLL.

And actually, SOON we will start A PUBLIC BETTING HEDGE FUND...updated right here on-forum-- trying to figure out the best way to 'painlessly & efficiently' start it & keep it updated from among the various books & daily bets. :103631605

:toast: :money8:

boxlocks · Jul 11, 2006

Sorry I asked

:nohead:

charleslanger · Jul 11, 2006

boxlocks said:
Sorry I asked

:nohead:

http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=373723&cc=5901 :dancefool

boxlocks · Jul 12, 2006

charleslanger said:
http://soccernet.espn.go.com/news/story?id=373723&cc=5901

I've seen enough in this thread to know I'm not interested in that link no matter how many dancing fags you put beside it...sorry

charleslanger · Jul 12, 2006

OK: Dutch both these @ 5dimes:

25911</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" nowrap="nowrap">S.MOSLEY POINTS HANDICAP</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">-4 -115 <INPUT type=checkbox value="2203569_S_Jul 11 2006 10:31:28:670PM" name=SelLine></TD> (any KO is a winner)<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" colspan="2" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">
<TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" nowrap="nowrap">1912</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" nowrap="nowrap">FIGHT WONT GO DISTANCE</TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" colspan="2" nowrap="nowrap"> </TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap">+155 <INPUT type=checkbox value="2256906_M_Jul 11 2006 10:22:06:030PM" name=SelLine></TD> <TD style="VERTICAL-ALIGN: bottom" align="right" nowrap="nowrap"></TD></TD>

The ratio is 57-43 respectively... OR
$137 on the first prop for each $100 on the second prop... OR
$73 on the second prop for each $100 on the first....

In other words, the first prop needs to have 37% more bet on it.

charleslanger · Jul 12, 2006

Strange-looking post up above...repeat here.

OK: Dutch both these @ 5dimes:

25911 S.MOSLEY POINTS HANDICAP -4 -115 (any KO is a winner)
1912 FIGHT WONT GO DISTANCE +155

The ratio is 57-43 respectively... OR
$137 on the first prop for each $100 on the second prop... OR
$73 on the second prop for each $100 on the first....

In other words, the first prop needs to have 37% more bet on it.

charleslanger · Jul 12, 2006

Further analysis details:

For those who watched or know how first fight between these two transpired, here are the likely strategic adjustments for each, as well as any other pertinent points-- training notes, what have you.

Firstly: both camps will surely have complained to both the present ref & powers that be about the other fighter's tactics: Mosley about Vargas' wrestling/pushing/manhandling, Vargas about Mosley's excessive clinching & head butting. SO......we look for ref to keep these well-separated...advantageous to Mosley.

Mosley:

He obviously will look to box & move side to side more, jab much more- double & triple up on it, followed by multi-combinations...rather than just stand there looking to trade & establish power early, as in first fight. He will not want to give the slower Vargas a chance to get in and push him around like last time, and will want to work on his stamina.
In other words, he did not fight his fight last time, thus he will look to return to his normal / earlier style-- & this is 'precisely' what will occur because his father is back in his corner! His father has him working on all these things in "15 round" sparring sessions.

Vargas:

His trainer is working on improving his speed-- de-emphasizing weight training, & having him jab much more. He wants him tocome in, duck/roll/move his head more to avoid Moseley's right, jab, & throw combos to the body. He wants him to come at Moseley early and take the fight to him. He wants him close to Mosley to negate his right...to not stay at a distance & be target practice for Mosley's quickness. And Vargas himself is under a lot of pressure to produce in a big fight, after several losses to name guys.

Conclusion:

This fight should be fast-paced from the get go.

And it's Mosley who dictates the pace with his quickness & style. Vargas can work on his quickness & movement all he wants, but he is at an inherent disadvantage to his foe.
Much is made of Vargas coming on strong late in their initial fight, but he did not do much early-- or at least as much as he will be doing with the change in plans here.
Much is also made about the head butt in the first fight, but that occurred in the first round, & if he didn't eat so many rights throughout the fight, his eye wouldn't have been an issue.

Mosley, like Leonard vs Duran, did not fight an advantageous fight in the first meeting, but will be able to adjust & really embarass his foe.

On a bizarre/ludicrous note for Vargas: he's stated his face wasn't used to getting hit last time, so he's changed headgear during sparring so that it will get used to getting hit / eating leather. He's never been all together up top, so go figure.

We look for Vargas to wear down as the fight progresses-- both from absorbing punishment & from running out of steam chasing Mosley around.

IF we're wrong, then we're hedged: Vargas would take over and score a KO-- but no way the bigger & slower guy outworks/outdances/outquicks/out-staminas Mosley to earn the decision.

PS should Vargas score a KO here, prepare to make some serious money later on, as he will be utterly destroyed when he moves up in weight class: you'll be able to pick him to lose by KO.

G'luck.

hailtothechief · Jul 12, 2006

Very Good Figuring Here But I've Got One Question? The Slower Vargas Wins The Fight By K.o. How Much Do You Lose In Your Caculations With More Money Being Bet On The First Prop Bet. What Percentage About Thirteen Or Don't I Figure We'll

charleslanger · Jul 12, 2006

You make money even if... just over 7½ - 8½ % guaranteed profit...

Where you do NOT win:

1. Vargas win by decision

2. Moseley Decision Win by LESS than 4 total points of the three cards(4 pushes). Even if the decision is split, you have a chance to win if the other 2 cards' margins are 2/3+ each...

And just to clarify: this is NOT a hedge/middle bet for us: we like Mosley to win comfortably...it just so happens that we can partially protect/hedge & still guarantee profit if we lose. We hope to collect on both bets.

IF you give Vargas a strong chance AND feel he can go the distance PLUS earn the decision, then this bet may not be for you.

Here's another formula-- take YOUR preferred TOTAL bet amount & divide it BY our $237...whatever number you get, multiply thusly:

X 137 for the amount on Mosley prop

X 100 for the Not Go Distance prop

Examples:

you wish to bet a total $50. So, / 237 = .211 rounded.

137 X .211 = $29 rounded Total Payoff @ -115 = $54.22

100 X .211 = $21 rounded Pays @ +155 = $53.55

$1,000 / 237 = 4.22

137 X 4.22 = $578 @ -115 = $1,080.61

100 X 4.22 = $422 @ +155 = $1,076.10

If you're getting substantially different odds, just post them here.

GL

kobefan08 · Jul 12, 2006

boxlocks said:
Who's we?

:think2:

me and charles :toast:

charleslanger · Jul 12, 2006

kobefan08 said:
me and charles :toast:

:toast:
BOL

charleslanger · Jul 13, 2006

Mag Analysis

BoxingTimes Analysis

charleslanger · Jul 13, 2006

26 cent scalp on the O/U....

JohnnieC · Jul 15, 2006

I'd really like to see Vargas win this one and get back on track, but I just can't see him beating Mosley.

charleslanger · Jul 15, 2006

JohnnieC said:
I'd really like to see Vargas win this one and get back on track, but I just can't see him beating Mosley.

Neither can I.
I see Leonard vs Duran 2 or Hagler. Mosley did not fight a very smart / his usual-style fight the first time. And the things Vargas says he'll do: press the fight early, roll down & up when coming in, double/triple up on the jab & throw more combos, moving head & body side to side... he's gonna run out of steam quickly...as well almost ALL fighters say they'll DO those things-- it's real easy to SAY it.
And Vargas is shedding 25 lbs.....

Much is made of Vargas coming on strong last time-- that was two rounds only he did that.

We're hedged in case of KO should Vargas catch him-- but even then, he's not a one-punch KO artist...& the ref may not allow pushing/manhandling...DelaHoya really worked the ref well on this when Vargas tried that.
BUT this is why we put up the analysis...in case someone can convince us of something we're missing.......

The quicker man should dictate the pace here.

Oh, and what about Vargas: sparring to get used to getting hit in the face? Lost me with that one.

Best of luck with your betting here and always.:toast:

boxlocks · Jul 15, 2006

Harold Lederman had Mosley winning all of the first 3 rounds in the first fight. You can get Mosley -175 to be ahead on Harolds card after 3 rounds again tonight.

That might be a safer bet than Mosley straight at the same price

Last time the judged had it 86-85, 86-85, 85-86 despite the rest of the world seeing it 6-3 or 7-2. Obviously the pro-Vargas latino crowd was able to influence the scores, and it will be the exact same scenario this time.

The judges scorecards from the last fight should worry Mosley backers here

gl bl

jimbo069 · Jul 15, 2006

Thanks Charles! Do not have to watch the fight? But you are 100 % RIGHT! Mosely will K.O. Vargas. A Lock if ever one? Mosely too Skilled and Smart. Vargas only Hope a 1-3 round Prayer Knock-Out? Mosely Boxes from 1-4 rounds as he keeps the jab peppering Vargases swollen eyes again. 6-9rds. mosely sets in to his combinations body-head side to side movement. From here the broken if still around Vargas has the ref. stop? Corner? Lights-Out $ Paid we are Happy Again!